 |
|
2008
Economist sees sign of U.S. housing spiral reaching bottom - Vancouver Sun
Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter, said she expects the U.S. housing industry to bounce along the bottom for several years and when it does recover, there's no guarantee Americans will go back to building monster homes in endless suburban subdivisions.
"The old B.C. business model of pumping out two-by-fours to the U.S. market is essentially over," she said. "There's not really going to be any turnaround in the traditional sense for us."
Surplus to shrink by 'hundreds of millions' - Globe and Mail
The province is also feeling the impact of falling commodity prices, especially for lumber. Lumber prices are in a desperate slide, said Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter. Producers are selling at a loss or just breaking even in an attempt to keep mills open. Benchmark western SPF (spruce pine fir) two-by-fours were selling for $188 per one thousand board feet this week, compared with $283 per one thousand board feet the same month four years ago.
“Right now, lumber is selling for freight plus zero,” Ms. Kosman said.
Lumber Producers Cut Work Week - Prince George Citizen
Industry observer Laurie Cater said the economic news coming out of the U.S. is not good. The situation is so bad that even if the price was to drop, B.C. lumber producers would likely not be able to sell any more product, said Cater, the publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter. "It's a problem that is not going to go away," said Cater, who talks to industry officials on both sides of the border each week to produce his newsletter.
Western Forest Products Lays Off 2,000 Workers - National Post
Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter, said the company is obviously hoping the sawmill curtailment will have the same effect in lumber markets. However, she said, by September -- when the mill is scheduled to come back -- demand for cedar will likely drop further. "People are in stores right now buying cedar. They are not going to be buying it in the fall for that new deck."
More Lumber Layoffs Expected - Vancouver Sun
Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter, said Western, the province's largest cedar producer, is probably attempting to keep the market from becoming over-supplied, which could lead to a rapid erosion of prices. "Over-supply is a danger. That's what killed everyone last year," she said of the commodity lumber market, where producers kept pumping lumber out to maintain cash flow despite falling prices. She said lumber prices are still strong, but if companies see their order files shrinking, they are likely to take action to keep supplies in line with demand.
Finally: Is there light ahead? - Pulp and Paper Canada
Prices for benchmark random length spruce, pine and fir two-by-fours remain in the US$200 range, about half its peak price of US$400 reported in 2004 and 2005, says Madison's Lumber Reporter, an industry paper.
2007
Reduced Industry Upheaval Ahead-Logging and Sawmilling Journal
What did this mean for prices? By the end of the year, lumber prices had fallen by $95 per Mfbm (benchmark WSPF 2x4 #2&btr) and OSB by $170 per thousand square feet (benchmark OSB 7/16” Ontario) from the same time last year.
Lumber Sector Feeling Pinch - Brink Forest Products
The mood of lumber buyers in the U.S. is not good, observed Madison's Lumber Reporter publisher Laurie Cater. He said nobody he has talked to in the industry thinks there much steam left for prices in 2007. Madison's pegged the benchmark 1,000 board feet of random length spruce-pine-fir two-by-fours at $278 US this week, an increase of five per cent over last week, and a jump of 22 per cent from a month ago.
Tolko reacts to low prices by taking down-time, cutting shift - Vancouver Sun
The shutdowns do not bode well for the health of the lumber sector, coming as they are at the beginning of the spring and summer construction period, said Keta Kosman, editor of Madison's Canadian Lumber Directory. This is the time of year when companies should be operating flat-out to meet the demand for new housing, she said.
How To Profit From The Canadian Lumber Crisis - Daily Wealth
"Recent calls for more curtailments and cuts in production go unheeded," writes Keta Kosman. Keta is the expert I hired to show me around BC's sawmill industry last week.
High Dollar, Export Tax Offset Rising Lumber Prices - Prince George Citizen
The price of the benchmark random length spruce-pine-fir two-by-four climbed to $286 US this week, a 25-per-cent increase from five weeks ago, according to Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter. However, the loonie is at a record 30-year high, topping 94 cents US recently, which erodes the bottom line of lumber producers. "Any increase in price has been more than offset by a 94-cent Canadian dollar," said Madison's publisher Laurie Cater. "It's a disaster," he said.
Slight Uptick in Prices Does Not Help Canadian & U.S. Producers - Stick Trade
There has been a slight lumber price increase in the wake of mounting temporary sawmill closures in Canada and the U.S., but nothing in the order of magnitude that would make mills profitable, industry observer L. Cater said Tuesday. "I don't think anyone's making any money," observed Cater, the publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter in Vancouver. Even though prices have improved slightly, lumber producers in Canada are still facing a high Canadian dollar and low prices.
2006
Annual Service Plan Reports 05/06-BC Ministry of Forests and Range
Drop in US new home sales hits B.C. lumber industry-Vancouver Sun
Laurie Cater, of the lumber trade journal Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, said there's a mood of pessimism in the U.S. housing sector that is working its way back to lumber producers in B.C. and affecting prices. Prices are down and the volume of wood products on the market is too high, given the weakening market demand, he said.
Lumber Prices Drop as US Home Market Stalls - Vancouver Sun
"The U.S. market is teetering," said Laurie Cater, publisher of Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, noting that new home inventories are now six months out, two months beyond comfort levels and interest rates are rising, cutting more buyers out of the market. "Lumber buyers are sensing the market is heading down, and they are waiting, watching to see how far down it will go."
2005
Dynamics of Trade and Economic Theory of Trade - U of Toronto
Lumber prices also reached record levels, helping to compensate for the duties. The price of western construction studs, an industry benchmark, was on average $393.35 US per 1,000 board feet in 2004, according to a spokesman at Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, an industry newsletter. This is well above the average price of $269.15 US in 2003.
Construction Lumber Costs Spike post-Katrina - Daily Commercial News
“The southern yellow pine market went crazy and, as that happens, it affects other species like spruce,” said Keta Kosman, a spokesperson for Madison Canadian Lumber Reporter, an industry newsletter. Kosman believes prices may moderate this week.
Panic Drives up Lumber Prices - The Globe and Mail
The price of 2-by-10-dimension planks soared $30 to $450 per thousand board feet, amid speculation that the hurricane damage will boost consumption of lumber next year. "It's all panic buying, there is no shortage of wood at all," said Keta Kosman, an analyst with Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter in Vancouver.
2004
BC Shrugs Off Softwood Lumber Dispute - Globe and Mail
The combination of soaring lumber prices, and recent consolidation in the B.C. industry is creating the kind of efficiencies that the Americans never dreamed of when they slapped punitive duties on Canadian softwood, one analyst said. “Of course this won't go on forever,” said Laurie Cater, publisher of Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, a Vancouver newsletter that tracks wood prices. “It never does.”
Stochastic Process of Lumber Prices - U of Melbourne
We have the real, average-monthly price per thousand board feet (1MBF) for one box car of Western, Kiln-Dried (KD), Spruce- Pine-Fir (SPF), 2x4s, Standard and Better (Std&Btr), Random Lengths (R/L). The series was contructed from weekly reports in the trade publication Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, weekly issues, January 1979 to October 1999. This price series is listed as \less 5&2 percent" discounts, and is free-on-board (FOB) mill.
Days Numbered for Doman - Logging and Sawmilling Journal
In April, Doman announced it had accepted a slightly modified version of the unsecured bondholders’ plan. “It’s a sad day,” said Laurie Cater, publisher of Madison’s Canadian Lumber Reporter. “It’s an over-worked phrase, but this really is the end of an era. I always hoped they would survive, but lately it’s become apparent that wasn’t going to happen.”
Riding the crest of the wave: Sawn softwood markets in 2003-2004 - USDA Forest Service
Planned capacity additions in Canada and Europe for several new or expanded mills suggest that similar increases are also taking place in those regions.44
44 Madison’s Canadian Lumber Reporter, 25 June 2004.
2003
BC Strategies Pay Off - Mid-American Lumber Ass. 'News Express'
"The B.C. strategy must have been a factor," said Madison's publisher Laurie Cater. "I don't think the Europeans ever thought prices would go this low."
Rise in Canada's Currency May Force Timber Solution-Seattle Times
"Some mills were able to show close to (a) profit, even with the duties," said Laurie Cater, publisher of Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, a Vancouver, B.C., trade journal. "The exchange rate is something that may accelerate some kind of settlement."
Lumber Market Worst in Decades - Globe and Mail
"It's very depressing," said Laurie Cater, publisher of Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, a Vancouver newsletter that tracks wood prices. Mr. Cater said the 13-per-cent rise in the value of the Canadian dollar so far this year is only adding to the pressure on the industry because lumber products tend to be priced in U.S. dollars.
Small Lumber Firm Profits from High Demand - Kamloops News
In June 2003, OSB in Western Canada was selling for about $300 per thousand feet. This month, the asking price is nearing $700. The present conditions make this the longest seller’s market in the history of Oriented Strand Board (OSB) and analysts say the trend could continue into next spring. “Seller markets don’t usually last longer than a day,” said Laurie Cater, industry analyst and publisher of Madison’s Canadian Lumber Reporter in Vancouver. “This will be a full quarter of rising OSB prices. Ainsworth’s profits should be nothing short of sensational.”
Budget 2003 - BC Ministry of Forests
The price for hemlock baby squares, a key product for the Coastal industry, was relatively stable in 2001 with prices up over year 2000 results. Average prices increased slightly again in 2002 to an average of US$597/mfbm4. However, Japanese demand is below 1990s levels and is likely to remain so given Japanese economic performance and shifts in product demand.
4 Source: Madison's Lumber Reporter.
2002
Canada–US Softwood Lumber Agreement - UN Economic Commission for Europe
The speedy recovery in prices after the first quarter of 2001 has been seen as the result of United States retailers failing to renew inventory levels at normal rates during the preceding period owing to the perception that there would be a “wall of wood” from Canada following the expiry of the agreement. While some risk-averse Canadian producers may be holding back on shipments to the United States for fear of retroactive action if a new tariff or duty is imposed, overall, shipments from Canada have increased moderately. Lumber inventories of Canadian producers are building up and any United States bound lumber is being charged a premium to offset potential future levies.
Johnson, L. Ward. How Much for that Dog in the Window?. Madison’s Canadian Lumber Reporter, volume 51, No. 22, June 1, 2001.
Canadian Softwood Lumber Exports Fall Sharply - MSU Forestry
The U.S. housing market is absorbing the last of the duty-free surplus lumber but prices have risen only slightly, says Laurence Cater, publisher of Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter.
Exports October 2002 - BC Stats: Ministry of Management Svcs.
Second Quarterly Report 2002: External Trade - Province of BC
In response to the U.S. tariff that came into effect on May 22, 2002, more efficient mills in the province increased production as a way of lowering average costs. Spruce-pine-fir 2x4s averaged $223 US per thousand board feet in the July to September period, down from $262 US in the April to June period. Recently, prices have fallen below $200 US.
Source: Madison's Lumber Reporter
