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2011
Lumber future finishes at unexpected high - Prince George CitizenIn a single week, [lumber cash price] for benchmark 2x4 western spruce, pine and fir jumped $22 to settle at $240 per thousand board feet on Nov. 15.
The outcome prompted Madison's Lumber Reporter publisher Keta Kosman to say the price is going to remain steady or increase for at least the rest of the month.
The price had peaked at $260 on Sept. 23 but bottomed out at $218 as of Nov. 8.
"A reversal like this in one week is pretty astonishing," Kosman said Friday, who added usually a catastrophic event, like a sawmill fire or a rail derailment, that threatened supply would be the only reason for such a jump. "Well, this is purely due to market conditions," she said.
"The price of lumber will stay firm until December, which is completely opposite of what everybody thought," Kosman said.
Lumber prices spike on jump in U.S. building - Vancouver SunThe price of spruce, pine and fir construction lumber closed the week at $240 US a thousand board feet, a $22 jump from the week before when it was at $218 US. The price hike is being viewed by B.C. lumber companies as one of the first pieces of positive news out of the U.S. in five years of dismal lumber pricing, said Keta Kosman, publisher of the lumber research journal Madison's Lumber Reporter.
Apartment construction is on the rise in the U.S., she said, fuelled by the need of so many people who have lost their homes to find an apartment to rent.
One week doesn't make a turnaround, Kosman said, but the with the U.S. holiday season approaching and mill order books filled for the next two to three weeks, she forecast that prices will remain where they are or go up between now and next January.
"This spurt in lumber prices is coming from the U.S.," she said. "But it's more of a function of a lack of supply rather than any remarkable increase in demand."
Growth in lumber sales to China to level off, analysts say - Prince George CitizenKeta Kosman of Madison’s Lumber Reporter had a similar position, saying the Chinese government has clamped down on the availability of credit. “The government building is going forward - the community housing and the re-roofing and the demand for the trusses is going to stay - but the private building of apartment blocks for private sales is definitely slowing down in China right now,” Kosman said.
Price change put China ahead of U.S. as B.C.’s top customer - Vancouver SunHowever, there are signs that the growth in purchases by Chinese buyers has eased off, according to Keta Kosman, publisher of the trade journal Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
“At Madison’s, we know that the stats [for shipments to China] are going to be down for the next couple of months because the price for lumber has softened from March until now,” Kosman said.
President’s Memo - Council of Forest IndustriesThe May 20 issue of Madison's Lumber Reporter has a great header—"Western Spruce Pine Fir Pukes." In other words lumber prices have softened dramatically and are well below where they were a year ago.
British Columbia lumber in demand for Japan reconstruction - Daily Commercial NewsMadison’s Lumber Reporter said the Japanese government has ordered 30,000 temporary and emergency shelters.
British Columbia lumber can help rebuild Japan after quake - Journal of CommerceMadison’s Lumber Reporter said the Japanese government has ordered 30,000 temporary and emergency shelters, with work starting on 415 of these units.
China's surging demand for lumber straining depleted B.C. forest sector - Vancouver Sun“Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter, said a six-per-cent spike in lumber prices this week has sharpened the focus on transportation issues. Prices for 1,000 board feet of lumber broke through the $300 level to $306 for the first time in five years, with the exception of a very brief spike last spring, she said.
Railroads are sending rail cars directly from mothballs to shippers to meet the demand for lumber, largely brought on by "massive" buying from China, Madison's reports in its March 4 issue.”
Forestry Industry Anticipating a Gradual Recovery in 2011 - Business Innovation Partnership
“The worst of the recession is over for the forest products industry, but even though companies are reporting strong results for 2010, plenty of obstacles loom in 2011 that are keeping a lid on optimism.”
Forestry industry surging, but nobody will utter the words - Vancouver Sun
“Everybody is poised and waiting. The mood is bullish but nobody wants to say it,” said Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter.
“China is not stopping and demand in Japan is starting to come back,” said Kosman. “The Pacific Rim is going to be hot. Between those two countries we can get the beetle kill out of there and producers can also make some money on the premium wood going to Japan.”
U.S. ramps up softwood lumber war, takes Canada to arbitration - Yahoo! Canada
Keta Kosman, publisher of the trade journal Madison's Lumber Reporter, said the American challenge poses a serious threat to the B.C. forest sector.
Bell looks to China, not U.S., for forest sector's recovery - Prince George Citizen
Madison's Lumber Reporter showed a similar trend, pegging increases in a range of lumber products. Its price for its benchmark RL spruce-pine-fir two-by-four was $250 at the end of last week, up from $235 last week and $140 a year ago.
U.S. launches legal action to reignite lumber war with Canada - Global TV BC
Keta Kosman, publisher of the trade journal Madison’s Lumber Reporter, said the American challenge poses a serious threat to the B.C. forest sector.
“This is aimed at B.C. now; this is the big dog. This is the one they have wanted since signing the softwood agreement in 2006,” she said."
2010/2011 Lumber Market Update - Truck Logger BC
In November 2009 the North American forest industry began a fundamental shift that continues to transform both the product mix and customer base. After a dismal period over more than two years from late 2006 through 2009, lumber producers and wholesalers reported to Madison’s Lumber Reporter in our weekly phone surveys that there is now a massive influx of orders from Asia, lead by China, of enough volume to lift many of their companies into the black.
2010
Timber Talk - Lumber Industry Update
Madison's Lumber Reporter appears on its annual year-end slot, one hour with Teddy Reynolds on Arkansas radio to talk about the lumber industry and projections for the coming year.
B.C. lumber industry targets China - Vancouver Sun
"Right now, Chinese buyers are bolstering a fall market that is usually quite quiet, Keta Kosman, publisher of the trade newsletter Madison's Lumber Reporter.
Chinese buyers are a force that can "spin the entire North American lumber market with one swipe of the dragon's tail," in the words of Madison's reporter Zara Heartwood in the newsletter's Oct. 22 edition.
Kosman added that Russia has vast tracts of virtually untapped red-pine forests that China would like to tap, but the Russian government has thrown uncertainty into the equation with threats of a prohibitive export tax on logs.
"Initially [Chinese demand for B.C. lumber] was because lumber prices were so depressed. Now, with every passing month, they're used to wood, working with wood, and the price is still quite low. We don't expect that to shift over easily."
U.S. is not happy with BC's underpriced lumber exports - ForestTalk
Madison's Lumber Reporter interviewed Pat Bell, BC’s Minister of Forests and Range. Bell said, “It is very disappointing that President Obama is talking about pulling down trade barriers, yet the US administration is entering into an arbitration over something that is clearly grandfathered into the 2006 SLA."
U.S. is not happy with BC's underpriced lumber exports - Canadian Wood Products
"BC has not changed any of its harvest practices since the signing of the SLA. It is no big secret that the longer the beetle kill timber is dead the less suitable it is for lumber purposes. Forest companies in BC are doing the best they can with a very poor log grade," BC’s Minister of Forests and Range, Pat Bell, said to Madison's Lumber Reporter in an interview.
Chile earthquake boosts pulp prices - Vancouver Sun
Keta Kosman, of Madison's Lumber Reporter, said sawmill damage, while severe, will not affect markets to the degree that pulp mill damage will. "My perception is that what's happening [in lumber] is the same thing that happens whenever we have a fire in B.C. Everybody tries to get what they can out of it, but it's short-lived."
The damage to sawmills has pushed prices up for products made from Chilean radiata pine, specifically mouldings. Kosman said she expects the solid wood shortage to work itself out within 90 days, as producers, particularly pine mills in the U.S. South, increase their production.
Lumber prices slipping - Prince George Citizen
According to Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter the benchmark random length spruce-pine-fir two-by-four was pegged at $270 US. That's down $22 from last month, but still up $117 from a year ago
Bell looks to China, not US, for forest sector's recovery - Prince George Citizen
Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter showed a similar trend, pegging increases in a range of lumber products. Its price for its benchmark random-length spruce-pine-fir two-by-four was $250 at the end of last week, up from $235 last week and $140 a year ago.
2009
TimberTalk Radio - KZHE in Magnolia, Arkansas
Link to podcast, half hour interview with Keta Kosman
Pine beetle runs out of food - Global TV
Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter, said in an interview the immediate issue facing some sawmills is the fact that they are starting to run out of wood already.
Kosman said there is only a year and a half’s supply of wood remaining that’s close to the mills and economic to harvest. At the other end of the spectrum, timber can be available for five to 15 years for mills that can economically access the dead pine.
Forest fires hurt B.C. industry - Vancouver Sun
In the last week the cash price of benchmark lumber has gone up $26 US from $174 US for 1,000 board feet to $200 US, said Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison’s Lumber Reporter. Earlier this week prices for lumber futures were also up two days in a row, which Kosman called significant.
It’s not solely because of the fires but they definitely have an impact, Kosman said. Also pushing up prices is good news from the United States about housing starts, the restricted logging due to fire danger in both Quebec and B.C., mill closures and a potential labour dispute in the interior with workers without a contract since the end of June, she said.
Canfor shuts down Prince George mill - Vanderhoof Omineca Express
Madison’s Lumber Reporter put the price of Western, kiln-dried spruce/pine/fir random length 2x4s at $162 US per 1,000 board feet. Prices were near $200 per 1,000 board feet at this time last year.
Lumber prices surge over supply, labour worries - Vancouver Sun
Western spruce, pine fir (SPF) prices closed last week at $162 US a thousand board feet, according to Madison's Lumber Reporter.
Lumber bottomed out at $137.90 US a thousand board feet on Jan. 29, the lowest price since 1986. It hit a 10-year high of $458.70 in August, 2004.
Campbell promises action for ranchers in Cariboo - Times Colonists
Campbell was citing an article in Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, which said Simpson: "estimated that punitive damages in the amount of $500 million could be claimed by the Coalition [for Fair Lumber Imports] against BC lumber companies."
In an interview, Simpson strongly refuted the claim that he was inviting lawsuits, saying that is absolutely untrue.
Canfor curtails mills - Prince George Free Press
According to Madison’s Canadian Lumber Reporter, prices for kiln-dried, Western spruce/pine/fir 2x4s was $148 per 1,000 board feet.
Vavenby Cuts Back - Clearwater Times
Spruce-pine-fir (SPF) lumber was selling for about $150/thousand board-feet last week, according to Madison’s Canadian Lumber Reporter. This compares to over $400 during 2004.
Chetwynd pulp mill closed - Prince George Citizen
Lumber has fallen to historic lows of $130 US for the benchmark spruce, pine and fir two-by-four, according to Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter. During the peak of the U.S. housing boom in 2004 and 2005, lumber was selling at the $400 level.
Forest industry 'hanging on by fingernails' - Vancouver Sun
Lumber prices bottomed out last week at $130 US a thousand board feet, the lowest they have been in 50 years of record-keeping, according to the trade journal Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter.
2008
Newfoundland seizes assets of AbitibiBowater - Globe and Mail
Without a mill, the local market for wood will be limited, giving the timber rights little immediate value. But the government's move is still logical, said Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter.
“In the best-case scenario, where somebody comes along and is interested in the mill, the rights will be held by the government,” she said. “If nothing happens and those trees are just left, then they're more valuable when this finally turns around.”
Economist sees sign of U.S. housing spiral reaching bottom - Vancouver Sun
Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter, said she expects the U.S. housing industry to bounce along the bottom for several years and when it does recover, there's no guarantee Americans will go back to building monster homes in endless suburban subdivisions.
"The old B.C. business model of pumping out two-by-fours to the U.S. market is essentially over," she said. "There's not really going to be any turnaround in the traditional sense for us."
Surplus to shrink by 'hundreds of millions' - Globe and Mail
The province is also feeling the impact of falling commodity prices, especially for lumber. Lumber prices are in a desperate slide, said Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter. Producers are selling at a loss or just breaking even in an attempt to keep mills open. Benchmark western SPF (spruce pine fir) two-by-fours were selling for $188 per one thousand board feet this week, compared with $283 per one thousand board feet the same month four years ago.
“Right now, lumber is selling for freight plus zero,” Ms. Kosman said.
Lumber Producers Cut Work Week - Prince George Citizen
Industry observer Laurie Cater said the economic news coming out of the U.S. is not good. The situation is so bad that even if the price was to drop, B.C. lumber producers would likely not be able to sell any more product, said Cater, the publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter. "It's a problem that is not going to go away," said Cater, who talks to industry officials on both sides of the border each week to produce his newsletter.
Western Forest Products Lays Off 2,000 Workers - National Post
Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter, said the company is obviously hoping the sawmill curtailment will have the same effect in lumber markets. However, she said, by September -- when the mill is scheduled to come back -- demand for cedar will likely drop further. "People are in stores right now buying cedar. They are not going to be buying it in the fall for that new deck."
More Lumber Layoffs Expected - Vancouver Sun
Keta Kosman, publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter, said Western, the province's largest cedar producer, is probably attempting to keep the market from becoming over-supplied, which could lead to a rapid erosion of prices. "Over-supply is a danger. That's what killed everyone last year," she said of the commodity lumber market, where producers kept pumping lumber out to maintain cash flow despite falling prices. She said lumber prices are still strong, but if companies see their order files shrinking, they are likely to take action to keep supplies in line with demand.
Finally: Is there light ahead? - Pulp and Paper Canada
Prices for benchmark random length spruce, pine and fir two-by-fours remain in the US$200 range, about half its peak price of US$400 reported in 2004 and 2005, says Madison's Lumber Reporter, an industry paper.
2007
Reduced Industry Upheaval Ahead-Logging and Sawmilling Journal
What did this mean for prices? By the end of the year, lumber prices had fallen by $95 per Mfbm (benchmark WSPF 2x4 #2&btr) and OSB by $170 per thousand square feet (benchmark OSB 7/16” Ontario) from the same time last year.
Lumber Sector Feeling Pinch - Brink Forest Products
The mood of lumber buyers in the U.S. is not good, observed Madison's Lumber Reporter publisher Laurie Cater. He said nobody he has talked to in the industry thinks there much steam left for prices in 2007. Madison's pegged the benchmark 1,000 board feet of random length spruce-pine-fir two-by-fours at $278 US this week, an increase of five per cent over last week, and a jump of 22 per cent from a month ago.
Tolko reacts to low prices by taking down-time, cutting shift - Vancouver Sun
The shutdowns do not bode well for the health of the lumber sector, coming as they are at the beginning of the spring and summer construction period, said Keta Kosman, editor of Madison's Canadian Lumber Directory. This is the time of year when companies should be operating flat-out to meet the demand for new housing, she said.
How To Profit From The Canadian Lumber Crisis - Daily Wealth
"Recent calls for more curtailments and cuts in production go unheeded," writes Keta Kosman. Keta is the expert I hired to show me around BC's sawmill industry last week.
High Dollar, Export Tax Offset Rising Lumber Prices - Prince George Citizen
The price of the benchmark random length spruce-pine-fir two-by-four climbed to $286 US this week, a 25-per-cent increase from five weeks ago, according to Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter. However, the loonie is at a record 30-year high, topping 94 cents US recently, which erodes the bottom line of lumber producers. "Any increase in price has been more than offset by a 94-cent Canadian dollar," said Madison's publisher Laurie Cater. "It's a disaster," he said.
Slight Uptick in Prices Does Not Help Canadian & U.S. Producers - Stick Trade
There has been a slight lumber price increase in the wake of mounting temporary sawmill closures in Canada and the U.S., but nothing in the order of magnitude that would make mills profitable, industry observer L. Cater said Tuesday. "I don't think anyone's making any money," observed Cater, the publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter in Vancouver. Even though prices have improved slightly, lumber producers in Canada are still facing a high Canadian dollar and low prices.
2006
Annual Service Plan Reports 05/06-BC Ministry of Forests and Range
Drop in US new home sales hits B.C. lumber industry-Vancouver Sun
Laurie Cater, of the lumber trade journal Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, said there's a mood of pessimism in the U.S. housing sector that is working its way back to lumber producers in B.C. and affecting prices. Prices are down and the volume of wood products on the market is too high, given the weakening market demand, he said.
Lumber Prices Drop as US Home Market Stalls - Vancouver Sun
"The U.S. market is teetering," said Laurie Cater, publisher of Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, noting that new home inventories are now six months out, two months beyond comfort levels and interest rates are rising, cutting more buyers out of the market. "Lumber buyers are sensing the market is heading down, and they are waiting, watching to see how far down it will go."
2005
Dynamics of Trade and Economic Theory of Trade - U of Toronto
Lumber prices also reached record levels, helping to compensate for the duties. The price of western construction studs, an industry benchmark, was on average $393.35 US per 1,000 board feet in 2004, according to a spokesman at Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, an industry newsletter. This is well above the average price of $269.15 US in 2003.
Construction Lumber Costs Spike post-Katrina - Daily Commercial News
“The southern yellow pine market went crazy and, as that happens, it affects other species like spruce,” said Keta Kosman, a spokesperson for Madison Canadian Lumber Reporter, an industry newsletter. Kosman believes prices may moderate this week.
Panic Drives up Lumber Prices - The Globe and Mail
The price of 2-by-10-dimension planks soared $30 to $450 per thousand board feet, amid speculation that the hurricane damage will boost consumption of lumber next year. "It's all panic buying, there is no shortage of wood at all," said Keta Kosman, an analyst with Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter in Vancouver.
2004
BC Shrugs Off Softwood Lumber Dispute - Globe and Mail
The combination of soaring lumber prices, and recent consolidation in the B.C. industry is creating the kind of efficiencies that the Americans never dreamed of when they slapped punitive duties on Canadian softwood, one analyst said. “Of course this won't go on forever,” said Laurie Cater, publisher of Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, a Vancouver newsletter that tracks wood prices. “It never does.”
Stochastic Process of Lumber Prices - U of Melbourne
We have the real, average-monthly price per thousand board feet (1MBF) for one box car of Western, Kiln-Dried (KD), Spruce- Pine-Fir (SPF), 2x4s, Standard and Better (Std&Btr), Random Lengths (R/L). The series was contructed from weekly reports in the trade publication Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, weekly issues, January 1979 to October 1999. This price series is listed as \less 5&2 percent" discounts, and is free-on-board (FOB) mill.
Days Numbered for Doman - Logging and Sawmilling Journal
In April, Doman announced it had accepted a slightly modified version of the unsecured bondholders’ plan. “It’s a sad day,” said Laurie Cater, publisher of Madison’s Canadian Lumber Reporter. “It’s an over-worked phrase, but this really is the end of an era. I always hoped they would survive, but lately it’s become apparent that wasn’t going to happen.”
Riding the crest of the wave: Sawn softwood markets in 2003-2004 - USDA Forest Service
Planned capacity additions in Canada and Europe for several new or expanded mills suggest that similar increases are also taking place in those regions.44
44 Madison’s Canadian Lumber Reporter, 25 June 2004.
2003
BC Strategies Pay Off - Mid-American Lumber Ass. 'News Express'
"The B.C. strategy must have been a factor," said Madison's publisher Laurie Cater. "I don't think the Europeans ever thought prices would go this low."
Rise in Canada's Currency May Force Timber Solution-Seattle Times
"Some mills were able to show close to (a) profit, even with the duties," said Laurie Cater, publisher of Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, a Vancouver, B.C., trade journal. "The exchange rate is something that may accelerate some kind of settlement."
Lumber Market Worst in Decades - Globe and Mail
"It's very depressing," said Laurie Cater, publisher of Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, a Vancouver newsletter that tracks wood prices. Mr. Cater said the 13-per-cent rise in the value of the Canadian dollar so far this year is only adding to the pressure on the industry because lumber products tend to be priced in U.S. dollars.
Small Lumber Firm Profits from High Demand - Kamloops News
In June 2003, OSB in Western Canada was selling for about $300 per thousand feet. This month, the asking price is nearing $700. The present conditions make this the longest seller’s market in the history of Oriented Strand Board (OSB) and analysts say the trend could continue into next spring. “Seller markets don’t usually last longer than a day,” said Laurie Cater, industry analyst and publisher of Madison’s Canadian Lumber Reporter in Vancouver. “This will be a full quarter of rising OSB prices. Ainsworth’s profits should be nothing short of sensational.”
Budget 2003 - BC Ministry of Forests
The price for hemlock baby squares, a key product for the Coastal industry, was relatively stable in 2001 with prices up over year 2000 results. Average prices increased slightly again in 2002 to an average of US$597/mfbm4. However, Japanese demand is below 1990s levels and is likely to remain so given Japanese economic performance and shifts in product demand.
4 Source: Madison's Lumber Reporter.
2002
Canada–US Softwood Lumber Agreement - UN Economic Commission for Europe
The speedy recovery in prices after the first quarter of 2001 has been seen as the result of United States retailers failing to renew inventory levels at normal rates during the preceding period owing to the perception that there would be a “wall of wood” from Canada following the expiry of the agreement. While some risk-averse Canadian producers may be holding back on shipments to the United States for fear of retroactive action if a new tariff or duty is imposed, overall, shipments from Canada have increased moderately. Lumber inventories of Canadian producers are building up and any United States bound lumber is being charged a premium to offset potential future levies.
Johnson, L. Ward. How Much for that Dog in the Window?. Madison’s Canadian Lumber Reporter, volume 51, No. 22, June 1, 2001.
Canadian Softwood Lumber Exports Fall Sharply - MSU Forestry
The U.S. housing market is absorbing the last of the duty-free surplus lumber but prices have risen only slightly, says Laurence Cater, publisher of Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter.
Exports October 2002 - BC Stats: Ministry of Management Svcs.
Second Quarterly Report 2002: External Trade - Province of BC
In response to the U.S. tariff that came into effect on May 22, 2002, more efficient mills in the province increased production as a way of lowering average costs. Spruce-pine-fir 2x4s averaged $223 US per thousand board feet in the July to September period, down from $262 US in the April to June period. Recently, prices have fallen below $200 US.
Source: Madison's Lumber Reporter
